tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.comments2023-07-22T06:46:32.200-07:00A Numbers GameA Numbers Gamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18412505663480533746noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-33831029738832697382022-12-07T23:44:23.206-08:002022-12-07T23:44:23.206-08:00It is always beneficial to find a new online on l...It is always beneficial to find a new online on line casino that provides a nice welcome package deal to their new gamers outcome of|as a end result of} free money is, in spite of everything, free money. They even have some mobile-exclusive video games which might be} a breeze to play. We think Bovada has carried out an amazing job with their mobile performance, <a href="https://vkfkdhzkwlsh.com/online-casino/" rel="nofollow">온라인카지노</a> and that is one app that we visit frequently for our sports betting gameplay. Signal manipulation through phony applications and software program hacking are variety of the} important dangers difficult the market development.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-87588383251334038162022-12-04T18:50:31.458-08:002022-12-04T18:50:31.458-08:00To gather these free spins you simply have to make...To gather these free spins you simply have to make a first-time deposit of $50 or extra. If <a href="https://choegomachine.com/casino-site" rel="nofollow">카지노사이트</a> there’s one thing higher than successful at slot machines, it’s obtained to be successful when you’re using free spins promos. A game for wizards and mere mortals, in Magic 7's might have} the facility to tug a prize from the hat. Scratch the 10 "Top Hats" and "Abracadabra" you could win cash and free cards a lot as} three,000 times your wager.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-22782555180087666582022-03-14T22:33:21.620-07:002022-03-14T22:33:21.620-07:00The Rooftop Rooftop Casino | Filmfile Europe
Play ...The Rooftop Rooftop Casino | Filmfile Europe<br />Play <a href="https://filmfileeurope.com/%eb%a8%b9%ed%8a%80-%ec%9e%ac%ed%8c%90%ec%86%8c.html" rel="nofollow">알크마르 축구</a> the casino Rooftop game in your browser. This casino <a href="https://filmfileeurope.com/%ed%86%a0%ed%86%a0-%ec%82%ac%ec%9d%b4%ed%8a%b8-%ed%99%8d%eb%b3%b4-%ec%83%a4%ec%98%a4-%eb%af%b8.html" rel="nofollow">먹튀중개소</a> games have been rated 3.8 <a href="https://tricktactoe.com/%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad-%ec%8a%a4%ed%8f%ac%ec%b8%a0%ed%86%a0%ed%86%a0-%eb%b2%b3%ed%94%bc%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8.html" rel="nofollow">스포츠토토 판매점찾기 샤오미</a> out of <a href="https://tricktactoe.com/%ec%82%ac%ec%84%a4%ed%86%a0%ed%86%a0-%ec%82%ac%eb%8b%a4%eb%a6%ac-%ec%83%a4%ec%98%a4%eb%af%b8.html" rel="nofollow">넷 텔러</a> 5 by our members and <a href="https://filmfileeurope.com/%ec%82%ac%ec%84%a4%ed%86%a0%ed%86%a0-%ea%b0%9c%ec%84%a4-%ec%83%a4%ec%98%a4%eb%af%b8.html" rel="nofollow">스핀토토</a> 26% of them said: Rating: 3.8 · Review by FilmfileEuropezanettegaddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08929392255644019634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-7802046271691056942022-03-04T15:58:57.827-08:002022-03-04T15:58:57.827-08:00A $5 bet gives $5 a shot at winning the NFL MVP
A ...A $5 bet gives $5 a shot at winning the NFL MVP<br />A $5 <a href="https://www.mapyro.com/%ec%95%84%ec%82%b0%ec%b6%9c%ec%9e%a5%eb%a7%88%ec%82%ac%ec%a7%80%ec%9d%b8%ea%b8%b0-%ec%88%9c%ec%9c%84.html" rel="nofollow">아산 출장안마</a> bet <a href="https://www.jtmhub.com/%eb%aa%a9%ed%8f%ac%ec%b6%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%95%88%eb%a7%88.html" rel="nofollow">목포 출장샵</a> gives $5 a shot at winning the NFL MVP. A $5 bet gives $5 a shot at <a href="https://drmcd.com/%ec%84%b8%ec%a2%85%ed%8a%b9%eb%b3%84%ec%9e%90%ec%b9%98%ec%b6%9c%ec%9e%a5%eb%a7%88%ec%82%ac%ec%a7%80%ec%9d%b8%ea%b8%b0-%ec%88%9c%ec%9c%84.html" rel="nofollow">세종특별자치 출장마사지</a> winning the NFL MVP. A $5 bet <a href="https://drmcd.com/%ec%98%81%ec%b2%9c%ec%a3%bc%eb%b3%80-%ea%b0%80%ea%b9%8c%ec%9a%b4%ec%b6%9c%ec%9e%a5%ec%83%b5.html" rel="nofollow">영천 출장마사지</a> gives <a href="https://www.jtmhub.com/%ea%b1%b0%ec%a0%9c%ec%a3%bc%eb%b3%80-%ea%b0%80%ea%b9%8c%ec%9a%b4%ec%b6%9c%ec%9e%a5%eb%a7%88%ec%82%ac%ec%a7%80.html" rel="nofollow">거제 출장샵</a> $5 apadyjadeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13694521109060296989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-12418326465256136352022-01-17T21:26:20.799-08:002022-01-17T21:26:20.799-08:00FREE Online Casino Bonuses 2021 with Real Bet $1, ...FREE Online Casino Bonuses 2021 with Real Bet $1, Win $1000 betway login <a href="https://goldcasino.in/betway/" rel="nofollow">betway login</a> fun88 <a href="https://viecasino.com/fun88/" rel="nofollow">fun88</a> 108Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Tulsa to Close Due to COVID-19Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-41652598200151105282017-09-18T08:59:09.824-07:002017-09-18T08:59:09.824-07:00Dich cho thue acc battleground uy tin ban co the t...Dich cho <a href="https://thueacc.pro" rel="nofollow">thue acc battleground</a> uy tin ban co the<a href="https://thueacc.pro/thue-acc-pubg-khuyen-mai-gio-choi-thueacc-pro/" rel="nofollow"> thue acc pubg</a> moi cach nhanh chong , cung <a href="https://thueacc.pro/tag/thue-acc-battleground" rel="nofollow">thue acc battleground</a> de trai nghiem nhe<br /><br /><a href="https://thueacc.pro/tag/thue-acc-pubg/" rel="nofollow">thue acc pubg</a> gia re choi tet gaokmenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08120030502332163099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-88817344995608454622017-06-07T01:16:53.791-07:002017-06-07T01:16:53.791-07:00Khi bạn trai bú nhũ hoa nhiều thì nhũ hoa của các ...Khi bạn trai bú nhũ hoa nhiều thì nhũ hoa của các bạn sẽ bị thâm và không còn màu hồng đỏ quyến rũ nữa. Bạn trai bú nhũ hoa có sao không <a href="http://kemtritham.net/p/ban-trai-bu-nhu-hoa-co-sao-khong.html" rel="nofollow">http://kemtritham.net/p/ban-trai-bu-nhu-hoa-co-sao-khong.html/</a> nên nhiều bạn trai kinh nghiệm khi chọn bạn gái nhìn vào nhũ hoa là biết đã trải qua tình trường như thế nào rồi.<br />Tiểu sử ca sĩ Diễm Thùy tên đầy đủ là Huỳnh Thị Diễm Thùy, sinh năm 1983 (Quý Hợi) năm nay 34 tuổi, thuộc mệnh Kim. Tiểu sử ca sĩ Diễm Thùy : <a href="http://kemtritham.net/p/tieu-su-ca-si-diem-thuy-que-o-dau-bao-nhieu-tuoi.html" rel="nofollow">http://kemtritham.net/p/tieu-su-ca-si-diem-thuy-que-o-dau-bao-nhieu-tuoi.html/</a> Diễm Thùy sở hữu năng khiếu hát nhạc và giọng hát trời ban, cô chưa qua trường lớp đào tạo nhưng đã giành quán quân cuộc thi lớn “Tình Khúc Xưa Và Nay” và thành công như hiện nay.<br />Bài viết này sẽ cung cấp cho bạn những thông tin về bí ẩn nốt ruồi phụ nữ mọc ở đâu thì giàu có đề tìm hiểu xem mình có những nốt ruồi mang ý nghĩa gì nhé ! Nốt ruồi phụ nữ mọc ở đâu thì giàu <a href="http://giantinhmachchan.net/p/not-ruoi-phu-nu-moc-o-dau-thi-giau-sang.html" rel="nofollow">http://giantinhmachchan.net/p/not-ruoi-phu-nu-moc-o-dau-thi-giau-sang.html/</a> Nốt ruồi ở huyệt thái dương thuộc cung thiên di thể hiện sự di chuyển của mỗi người. Nốt ruồi ở đây thể hiện sự may mắn hay rủi ro trong những chuyến đi xa, có thể là đi du lịch.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11797859877582476357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-19438991838109056532010-05-08T19:07:38.520-07:002010-05-08T19:07:38.520-07:00You should do a piece on speaker points for my new...You should do a piece on speaker points for my new debate journal <br /><br />http://www.the3nr.com/2010/05/05/the-last-word-a-new-debate-journal/STPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06096584218081528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-84995450057144049262009-11-01T12:31:38.373-08:002009-11-01T12:31:38.373-08:00Anonymous:
What problem should a new speaker poin...Anonymous:<br /><br />What problem should a new speaker point scale attempt to solve? I think there are at least two:<br /><br />1. Judges do not use the same scale, so seeding and awards are dependent on who judged a team rather than how they performed.<br />2. Judges do not have enough granularity in their scale, so small differences in performance lead to large difference in points awarded: a 27.8 looks 0.5 points better than a 27.7, when it should only look 0.1 points better.<br /><br />I think the RKS scale solves the latter, but only until point inflation ruins it like it ruined the 30-point scale.<br /><br />For the problem #1, I agree that having a 77 denote something other than 27.7 might help. One idea is that the point scale could be 0-100, with judges expected to award each speaker his or her expected percentile out of all debaters at that tournament. This would anchor the points to the judging pool as a whole, as well as providing a way for judges to see if they were giving high or low points.<br /><br />Unfortunately, this still doesn't provide an absolute anchor. It might combat point inflation, but only if tournaments had a way to normalize the points of judges who consistently give high points. I'm not sure what an absolute reference scale would even look like. Another problem would be that judges don't know the strength of the teams at a tournament before it occurs, especially at large, diverse tournaments and early in the season.A Numbers Gamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412505663480533746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-91040329891368842132009-11-01T08:43:08.490-08:002009-11-01T08:43:08.490-08:00The Harvard tournament this year is recommending a...The Harvard tournament this year is recommending a direct translation of the 30pt scale into a 100pt scale (so that 27.5 = 75, 29 = 90, etc). What this functionally does is lops off the first digit and moves the decimal one place to the right. It seems to me that this defeats the purpose. Sure, in a strict sense there will be a larger differentiation (5 points is more than .5 points), but there is no *relative* difference between them. Creating a ratio between the two scales ensures the exact same problem of differentiation. It may make us feel better to say that there is a "3 point difference between the 1st and 2nd speaker," but we're functionally saying the same thing when we say that there is a ".3 point difference" on the 30 point scale.<br /><br />Changing the numbers alone can't solve the problem (as long as the ratio between those numbers stays the same). Speaker points have become too self referential. What is a 28 speech? What is a 29.5 speech? What is a 20 speech? These numbers have no meaning on their own. Changing them merely replicates the problem. What is needed is a better rubric for people to evaluate across the numbers. Its the job of the rubric to create differentiation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-70619096565221344842009-05-04T01:19:00.000-07:002009-05-04T01:19:00.000-07:00Thanks for asking around, Rob. I do plan on adjust...Thanks for asking around, Rob. I do plan on adjusting for team strength, but I'll probably first look at resolution bias.A Numbers Gamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412505663480533746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-86229302910086447152009-05-04T01:17:00.000-07:002009-05-04T01:17:00.000-07:00Gonzo, the formula has no controls for division. Y...Gonzo, the formula has no controls for division. You make a good point.<br /><br />I suspect (though I have not checked) that there is a slight negative bias in JV, as some teams may be made up of one debater who should be in the open division and one who should be in the novice division. The better debater, as a 2N, can often win the debate without much help from his/her partner.<br /><br />The confidence interval takes into account the number of ballots a judge has produced, and creates larger confidence intervals for judges with fewer ballots.<br /><br />I think the main problem with the numbers is related to the total number of judges. So many judges were tested, finding a few with skewed ballot counts may simply be identifying the tails of a distribution with no greater variance than if each round had been decided by a coin flip.A Numbers Gamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412505663480533746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-8350609245149075802009-05-04T01:08:00.000-07:002009-05-04T01:08:00.000-07:00Bias from the PRNG is something I hadn't considere...Bias from the PRNG is something I hadn't considered yet, Anonymous. That's an intriguing idea.<br /><br />I do plan on adjusting the numbers based on team strength, but your idea is much more interesting than that. I think a source code review of the common software would be revealing.A Numbers Gamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18412505663480533746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-76106440040816475772009-04-30T10:16:00.000-07:002009-04-30T10:16:00.000-07:00To follow up on my previous comment, I asked a few...To follow up on my previous comment, I asked a few statistics people for suggestions on dealing with weighting. Here is the response: <br /><br /><I>The main problem is that you have a tiny sample size. With 50-100 debates per year, you could potentially just eliminate all cases where a team that ended up higher in the rankings beat a team below them, retroactively scaled.<br /><br />So once you have the final rankings, if #1 beat #4 in the first round, just eliminate that from consideration. Presumably they're a better debating team if they won. Do this for all 50-100 matches, see what you have left.<br /><br />Potentially, only eliminate ones where the final rankings differ by more than 2-3 or some arbitrary margin. Or repeat the analysis with various sets of criteria.<br /><br />Then take whatever is left, and test them. You could try something like a sign test, where + is affirmative, and - is the opposite, and just see if there's any sort of proof of bias at a 90% level. It's not going to be hard and fast, but it might be interesting.</I>I would suggest something like exclusion of rounds where one team was ahead by 2 rounds at the end of the debate (i.e. exclude a 6-2 4-4 round).Rob Millsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-18490354652054825902009-04-30T09:06:00.000-07:002009-04-30T09:06:00.000-07:00Does your formula control for any covariance, such...Does your formula control for any covariance, such as the overall win percentages of aff versus neg in a given division? For example, there's a possibility that novice debates are more likely to skew negative than open debates, etc. Seems like there's a lot of potential confounding variables that go into the decisions. Also, as anonymous commented, how do you correct for strength of teams? It seems that a judge might just see several presets that skew the sample - given the low power of a given judge's sample size (at most 70 or 80, much lower for many of those judges whom you've indicated are biased outside of a given confidence interval) even a random few highly imbalanced presets can wreck havoc on your findings...Gonzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15406999667395007539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-953859622641559363.post-21960477469795822752009-04-30T07:30:00.000-07:002009-04-30T07:30:00.000-07:00You need to develop a system to weight wins and lo...You need to develop a system to weight wins and losses. It could be that 'stronger' teams tend to be negative in front of certain judges due to the random number generator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com